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da premier bet： “In terms of shots on the opposition goal we are up in the top five or six,” Mark Hughes told the press ahead of Southampton’s Premier League clash against Newcastle on Saturday as justification for his side managing just six goals from their first nine top flight games of the new season. “I think I would be more concerned if we were coming out of games looking at chances created and seeing a low number.”
Perhaps it was an attempt to breed optimism into an incredibly underwhelming campaign and confidence into a squad clearly lacking it, especially when they reach the final third, in the buildup to a game that had the inevitable feeling of an early relegation decider. But after 22 failed attempts to beat Martin Dubravka at the weekend that pushed Saints to third in the Premier League’s shots tally, Southampton fans should fear how Hughes analyses that profligacy in front of goal.
After all, statistics are only as reliable as the accuracy in which they’re interpreted and while Hughes may point to efforts at goal as the key headline metric, there’s plenty of evidence to contradict the positivity of that high return. Crucial amongst those, as we saw again on Saturday when a third of Southampton’s shots were from outside the box and none from inside the six-yard box, is the club’s Premier League ranking of third for efforts beyond 18 yards. In contrast, Saints are 14th for shots inside six yards and 16th for efforts inside the penalty area.
Indeed, statistical analysis has reached a point where it can assess the quality of chances created rather than just the ultimate number, and Southampton’s chances have desperately lacked that aspect this season. Admittedly, from what they’ve made so far, their goal tally should be a little higher; they’re eleventh for expected goals and have missed the sixth-most big chances of any Premier League side. If all those expected goals had been converted, Southampton would have more goals than any team outside the top nine.
But the big question here is the validity of expected goals, and whether Southampton’s have been accumulated through volume rather than precision. That’s exactly what Saints are lacking in the final third right now; they’re getting into advantageous positions but making poor decisions. Partly a consequence of a squad clearly lacking confidence, but also quality and direction as well. Tellingly, despite the 22 attempts against Newcastle, Southampton’s expected goal return was just 1.2 – enough to warrant a victory in a disappointingly attritional game, but hardly a return that suggests only poor finishing is costing the south coast side.
Once again though, Hughes was quick to focus on quantity rather than quality after Saturday’s scoreless draw. “We had 22 shots and we haven’t been able to convert one of them. At the top end of the pitch we need to make more of the chances we are creating, in moments we need a killer edge to our play.” Of course, becoming ruthlessly clinical overnight would solve Southampton’s immediate problems, albeit unsustainably, but the fundamental issue isn’t the quality of their finishing, rather the quality of what they’re producing.
Perhaps Hughes’ take on the Newcastle game was another attempt to instil some confidence amongst his players – surely a more logical way to get them firing again than going the other direction with public criticism. But the lingering concern is that the Welshman does have form here, when he seems to be largely oblivious to the issue at hand.
After all, this is the same manager who once claimed he doesn’t “do relegation” because he’s always “too busy trying to get into the top 10” during the same season Stoke relieved him of his duties as the club plummeted to 18th, before ultimately dropping down the the Championship, and he then took over a Southampton side that narrowly avoided the Premier League’s trapdoor by just a single place, decided in a single game against Swansea City that came down to a late, scrappy Manolo Gabbiadini goal. Six years earlier, his QPR side were spared relegation by other results after losing 3-2 on the final day of the season.
As is sometimes the case with born winners of Hughes’ variety, an iconic footballer who even lifted silverware with Blackburn Rovers during his retirement season, sometimes a gap emerges between their perception and the reality, filled with excuses and caveats to cover the shortcomings their own egos can’t stomach to see exposed.
That’s not to suggest Southampton’s problems should be pinned to a manager who has overseen just 22 games in charge after inheriting a relegation-threatened squad from Mauricio Pellegrino, but it does make you wonder if Hughes is looking at the right things, rather than simply trying to justify his own decisions, influence and actions. The more he obsesses over the volume rather than quality of chances, the longer Southampton will struggle to fix their most pivotal and fundamental flaw.